By Nazima Raghubir
Guyana’s growth and transformation is expected to continue, the International Monetary Fund has projected. This growth is primarily driven by the decade-old oil sector and according to the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook (Fall 2025), Guyana achieved extraordinary growth of 43.6 percent in 2024, primarily due to “a ramp-up in oil production.” This “exceptional performance” positions the country as a significant outlier among Caribbean nations with the IMF noting that “Guyana had one of the world’s highest growth rates in 2024.”
The Outlook projects a growth trajectory that remains robust, “though moderating from the exceptional 2024 levels”. The IMF projects growth of 10.3 percent for 2025 and 23.0 percent for 2026, reflecting continued expansion in both oil and non-oil sectors, “Guyana’s oil and non-oil growth remained exceptionally strong,” indicating broad-based economic development beyond the petroleum industry.
Guyana also maintained relatively controlled inflation. The IMF report projects inflation at 4.3 percent for 2025 and 4.5 percent for 2026, significantly lower than many regional peers experiencing inflationary pressures. The report noted that this “demonstrates” effective monetary management amid unprecedented economic growth. Additionally, Guyana’s external position reflects the “strength” of its oil exports. Guyana recorded a current account surplus of 16.4 percent of GDP in 2024, though this is projected to moderate to 7.9 percent in 2025 and 11.8 percent in 2026. These substantial surpluses underscore the transformative impact of oil revenues on the nation’s external accounts, the IMF noted.
On its fiscal management front, the IMF maintained that Guyana’s fiscal position reflects its “investment-oriented growth strategy” as the country maintained a primary deficit of 7.0 percent of GDP in 2024, projected at 4.6 percent for 2025 and 4.0 percent for 2026. The IMF noted that primary expenditure increased substantially from 20.0 percent of GDP in 2022 to 24.5 percent in 2025 which the organisation said “reflects significant public investment in infrastructure and development projects”.
Despite these deficits, Guyana’s debt levels remain manageable, the IMF report maintains. The country’s gross debt stood at 24.3 percent of GDP in 2024 and is expected to rise to 29.0 percent in 2025 and 29.3 percent in 2026. These remain among the lowest debt levels in the Latin America and Caribbean region, the IMF report said, providing substantial fiscal space for continued development investments.
The report was made public on Friday.